Tag: American politics

Election 2012: Obama’s Turn

The odd thing about elections is that they’re so easily sidetracked.  Major issues give way to pivotal moments that wouldn’t warrant a page five headline in normal times.  Michael Dukakis’ now infamous joyride on an M1 Abrams tank in 1988 comes to mind.  Few, if anybody, really remembers what Dukakis had to say in ’88 but the image is still there – slightly silly – definitely un-presidential.  It’s the simple things that define an election.  The thing is most concepts are just too complex to explain in a sound byte or a television ad.  Thus, candidates have to distill a broad spectrum of ideas into one overwhelming message and hope it sticks to the electorate.  Franklin Delano Roosevelt did it with The New Deal, John Kennedy with The New Frontier and in 2008, Hope and Change carried Barack Obama to the White House.  The problem is these encapsulated messages are fragile creatures, and like Humpty Dumpty, if they shatter, there’s no way to pick up the pieces.

There’s not a lot of talk about Hope and Change in the Obama camp these days.  The mood is more hunkered-down.  The Democratic National Convention still has the hoopla, but the party atmosphere of 2008 is gone.  People are serious.  This isn’t going to be a skate to November like it was last time.  There’s a broad admission that, “We’re not there yet.” and there’s a lot of work to do.

Tomorrow, the Democrats bring out the big guns – Bill Clinton and the president himself.  Barack Obama doesn’t need to convert the faithful anymore; he needs to reconvert the sceptics.  It’s a difficult situation.  In 2008, Obama’s message was one simple idea — I am the solution.  Here in 2012, it’s more complicated than that.   He’s got to tell the electorate that he is indeed still the solution, but he also has to convince them that he’s not actually the problem.  Meanwhile, the Republicans have branded their guy a matte finish Mr. Fix-it.  No gloss, no gleam, just a clear picture of a repairman who can spot-mend the immediate mess and hold the line until Christie and Ryan and Rubio are ready to take over.

So far, there has been no defining moment in this election, but there will be.  If Obama is smart — and I know he is — he will stay away from going toe to toe with the Republicans.  He needs to bring on the glitter, paint the Republicans as joyless suits and ties, and rekindle those personal flames that were burning election night four years ago.  If he does that, he’ll probably get four more years; if he doesn’t, he can get busy planning his library.

Super Tuesday: A Revelation

Remember when you were a kid and your mother put something on your plate you didn’t recognize and said, “Eat it.  It’s good?”  And remember that sudden, life-changing understanding you had when you took the first bite and realized that the world was a hard and cruel place where a mother would betray her own child?  Revelations come to us all: every now and then, our eyes open just a little wider and a liitle more light comes in.  The irony is, most of the time when this happens, the world actually gets just a little darker.

I love politics.  It’s the thing that separates us from the beasts.  Throughout history, it has protected us from the bullies who roam this earth.  It allows people like me to say what I like without looking over my shoulder for the boys with the electrodes.  It delivers us from anarchy (which, by the way, has never been our natural state.)  It prevents chaos in a world where next-door neighbours don’t necessarily like each other.  It organizes us to achieve and accomplish things we could never do individually, and it keeps us from butchering each other with any more alacrity than we already possess.  Without politics, our world would look very much like the Dark Ages – scary, brutish and nasty.

Politics is the only human activity that combines our noblest ideals with our scuzziest behaviour.  It’s the real Sport of Kings.  And the rules of the game are very simple: there are no rules.  There never have been.  Ever since the first Egyptian tough guy discovered that Pharaoh sounded a lot classier than “that mean bugger over on the Nile,” there has been only one guiding principle to political life – you’re useless unless you win.  It doesn’t matter how altruistic your ideals, how noble your cause or how brilliant your solutions, without power you’re just another philosopher without a kingdom.  This is why, across history, so many men (and a whole lot of women) have assembled and excused all manner of low-life “ends justify the means” schemes and sacrificed more than their honour on the altar of political power.  It’s the way of the world.  You don’t have to like it; but it is the nature of political power.

Unfortunately, this leads us to the current crew of Republicans who wish to become the most powerful man in the world.  Their brand of “all’s fair” in primary campaigning is stooping to a new low.  In fact, they actually reached rock bottom some time ago, and now they’re starting to dig.  For the first time in my political awareness (and understand, I remember Richard Nixon!) I’m holding my nose.  Never in the history of political conflict has so much dirt been thrown so far for so little gain.  Look, men!  If you’re going to sling mud, at least make sure it sticks.  Not only that, but I’m not even certain these guys watch the news.  It’s the economy, stupid!  Yet, every time I turn around, one of them wants to bomb Iran, build a mansion on the moon or eliminate representation without taxation — meanwhile, stopping time entirely and returning the social calendar back to when Eisenhower was running the show.  Is anybody serious, here?  Take a look at yourselves, you guys!  You’re yapping on, as if you can change the world, but everybody and his puppy knows you spent last week hiding out from Rush Limbaugh, for God’s sake!  Not one of you called him out, and every one of you should have.

As of close of business yesterday, Barack Obama still had the keys to the White House, and Super Tuesday or not, the Republican Party is no closer to calling dibs on the lease.  Somewhere around Ohio, I had the revelation that these three pretenders (Sorry, Ron!  You never had a hope!) just don’t have the cojones for the job.

Politics is about ideas, but you can idea ‘til you’re blue in the face: eventually you have to do something about it.  You have to generate some excitement.  You have to gather the tribes and give them something to hope for… something to vote for.  This primary season is turning into the bland leading the bland, and nobody seems capable of putting it away.  Somebody’s going to win the nomination, obviously, but unless that somebody steps up and demonstrates political power, it’s not going to mean much.  Barack Obama isn’t a very good president, but he’s a great politician.  From what I’ve seen so far, that’s something the Republicans candidates aren’t.  Right now, it doesn’t matter who wins: come November, Obama’s going to beat their brains out.  It will be the worst defeat since Lyndon Johnson kicked Goldwater’s ass back to Arizona in ’64.

Last night, looking at the Super Tuesday numbers from Ohio, I suddenly realized: today, the world is a harder, crueler place.

MITT ROMNEY … OR ELSE (Part III)

Rumour has it that nothing concentrates the mind like getting shot at.  I don’t have much firsthand experience, but I’ll take it on faith that dodging a bullet makes you think clearly.  Let’s hope so, because a couple of weeks ago in South Carolina the Republican Party almost shot themselves in the foot.  Yesterday, in Florida, they dodged that bullet and now, therefore, should be able to think straight again.  I’ll do it to you once more without the metaphor.  In the South Carolina primary, a couple of weeks ago, Republicans went (temporarily) insane and voted for Newt Gingrich.  Yesterday, in the Florida primary they came to their senses and voted for Romney — overwhelmingly!  This should settle things.   If it doesn’t, there’s going to be an awful lot of time, energy and expense wasted trying to dodge the next Gingrich bullet — which could very well kill any hope of the GOP relocating Barack Obama’s residence in November.

The Republican Party needs to nominate Mitt Romney.  They need to do it sooner, rather than later, or risk tearing their rightwing umbrella full of ideological holes.  Offering Gingrich any modicum of hope for the nomination will just invigorate the political infighting and open the door to prolonged civil war.  Not only that, but if Newt thinks he’s got some support, there’s no tellin’ what he’s capable of.  He might (perish the thought) just go “Third Party” and FUBAR the election to maximum effect.  No, Gingrich needs to be seriously ballot-boxed out of the equation, since it doesn’t look as if he’s willing to leave voluntarily.

I’m not going to go into the wherefores and the whys and all the political arguments for and against Newt Gingrich.  At this point, it doesn’t matter: it’s too late.  There are exactly nine months until the election.  The Republicans need to concentrate every minute of every waking hour on November.  Wasting energy on a primary fight is not in their best interest.  Everybody needs to understand that the single most overwhelming argument in favour of Mitt Romney is this: Barack Obama is in the White House, and no amount of right wing wishful thinking is going to get him out.  Bluntly, Newt can’t beat Barack; Mitt can.

We need to remember that, before all the hype, Obama was a dolt out of the blue, leading into 2008.  He was all things to all people because nobody had a clue who or what he really was.  Frankly, most folks didn’t care.  He wasn’t George Bush; that’s all that mattered.  It’s actually ironic that, in the end, he was the best dolt for the job, given what the Republicans mounted against him.  But that was a one-off.  Four years later, Obama isn’t surprising anybody anymore.  In fact, he’s disappointing quite a few.  Again, I’m not going to detail the misadventures of Barack Obama, but even a casual observer can see he’s vulnerable.  Ever since the 2010 Congressional elections, he’s been taking just about as much flak from the left as he has from the right, and tons of disillusioned people in the centre are ready to abandon the brand.  Politically speaking, a reasonable presidential alternative could turn into a real alternative — with luck and a lot of hard work piled on.

Regardless of whether you agree with Newt Gingrich’s politics or not, he is not a reasonable alternative.  First of all, he’s carrying enough political baggage to sink the Titanic.  He’ll have to spend most of the campaign defending that, because Obama’s not going to let the country forget it.  Secondly, despite the bounce he got from John King in South Carolina, it’s going to be open season on his personal life.  Under the guise of comic relief, the media will tear him a new navel over what will probably be called his personal life choices.  The writers from Jon Stewart, Stephen Colbert and SNL are burning up laptops, even as we speak.  They will make him look as ridiculous as possible.  Finally, and most importantly, the guy’s stuck in an ideological straitjacket.  Obama is already framing the campaign as “Them” vs “Us.”  Without political flexibility, Gingrich will be trapped into defending “Them” on ideological grounds, losing his core message in the meantime.  After that, all Obama has to do is point a finger and say, “See?  I told you!  He’s one of them.”  The end result is, if Gingrich is the Republican nominee, he will spend most of the presidential campaign on the defensive.  Obama won’t have to convince the country he’s the better candidate.  All he’ll have to do is convince them he’s not Newt Gingrich.

Mitt Romney might be the Man from Bland, but that’s exactly what the Republicans need in 2012 – a reasonable alternative.  If the American people have a realistic presidential option Barack Obama will have to stand and fight.  And the only weapon he has is his record in the White House.  If I were a Republican, I’d take that bet — today — rather than waste a lot of time and money taking potshots at one another and dodging bullets.