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Super Tuesday: A Revelation

Remember when you were a kid and your mother put something on your plate you didn’t recognize and said, “Eat it.  It’s good?”  And remember that sudden, life-changing understanding you had when you took the first bite and realized that the world was a hard and cruel place where a mother would betray her own child?  Revelations come to us all: every now and then, our eyes open just a little wider and a liitle more light comes in.  The irony is, most of the time when this happens, the world actually gets just a little darker.

I love politics.  It’s the thing that separates us from the beasts.  Throughout history, it has protected us from the bullies who roam this earth.  It allows people like me to say what I like without looking over my shoulder for the boys with the electrodes.  It delivers us from anarchy (which, by the way, has never been our natural state.)  It prevents chaos in a world where next-door neighbours don’t necessarily like each other.  It organizes us to achieve and accomplish things we could never do individually, and it keeps us from butchering each other with any more alacrity than we already possess.  Without politics, our world would look very much like the Dark Ages – scary, brutish and nasty.

Politics is the only human activity that combines our noblest ideals with our scuzziest behaviour.  It’s the real Sport of Kings.  And the rules of the game are very simple: there are no rules.  There never have been.  Ever since the first Egyptian tough guy discovered that Pharaoh sounded a lot classier than “that mean bugger over on the Nile,” there has been only one guiding principle to political life – you’re useless unless you win.  It doesn’t matter how altruistic your ideals, how noble your cause or how brilliant your solutions, without power you’re just another philosopher without a kingdom.  This is why, across history, so many men (and a whole lot of women) have assembled and excused all manner of low-life “ends justify the means” schemes and sacrificed more than their honour on the altar of political power.  It’s the way of the world.  You don’t have to like it; but it is the nature of political power.

Unfortunately, this leads us to the current crew of Republicans who wish to become the most powerful man in the world.  Their brand of “all’s fair” in primary campaigning is stooping to a new low.  In fact, they actually reached rock bottom some time ago, and now they’re starting to dig.  For the first time in my political awareness (and understand, I remember Richard Nixon!) I’m holding my nose.  Never in the history of political conflict has so much dirt been thrown so far for so little gain.  Look, men!  If you’re going to sling mud, at least make sure it sticks.  Not only that, but I’m not even certain these guys watch the news.  It’s the economy, stupid!  Yet, every time I turn around, one of them wants to bomb Iran, build a mansion on the moon or eliminate representation without taxation — meanwhile, stopping time entirely and returning the social calendar back to when Eisenhower was running the show.  Is anybody serious, here?  Take a look at yourselves, you guys!  You’re yapping on, as if you can change the world, but everybody and his puppy knows you spent last week hiding out from Rush Limbaugh, for God’s sake!  Not one of you called him out, and every one of you should have.

As of close of business yesterday, Barack Obama still had the keys to the White House, and Super Tuesday or not, the Republican Party is no closer to calling dibs on the lease.  Somewhere around Ohio, I had the revelation that these three pretenders (Sorry, Ron!  You never had a hope!) just don’t have the cojones for the job.

Politics is about ideas, but you can idea ‘til you’re blue in the face: eventually you have to do something about it.  You have to generate some excitement.  You have to gather the tribes and give them something to hope for… something to vote for.  This primary season is turning into the bland leading the bland, and nobody seems capable of putting it away.  Somebody’s going to win the nomination, obviously, but unless that somebody steps up and demonstrates political power, it’s not going to mean much.  Barack Obama isn’t a very good president, but he’s a great politician.  From what I’ve seen so far, that’s something the Republicans candidates aren’t.  Right now, it doesn’t matter who wins: come November, Obama’s going to beat their brains out.  It will be the worst defeat since Lyndon Johnson kicked Goldwater’s ass back to Arizona in ’64.

Last night, looking at the Super Tuesday numbers from Ohio, I suddenly realized: today, the world is a harder, crueler place.

Syria: You Can Pick Your Friends, But …

I think if I were a Syrian, I’d be looking around for some new friends.  This current crowd just isn’t measuring up in the amigo department.  After all, if your BFF is Iran, it doesn’t take a PHD in WTF to figure out you’re in trouble.  Meanwhile, when two superpowers (one past, one future) are playing nice with you and nasty with the UN, I’d be counting the silverware.  No accusations, but the last time the Russians went all warm and fuzzy in the Middle East, Gamal Nasser was building the Aswan dam.  And China’s newfound foreign muscle needs no introduction.  Something’s rotten in Damascus.  I’m not sure what it is, but I’ll bet Syrian pounds to a pile of camel poop it’s not going to go well for the average guy on that Arab street.

Despite what most second tier Western diplomats will tell you, Syria is not on the top of anybody’s talking list right now.  Even the big boys at the Tunis conference over the weekend didn’t have much to say.  Of course, they made all the right noises: condemning the killing, promising aid and other such vagueries, but I imagine the afterhours parties were long on nuclear Iran and short on dead dissidents.  It’s not that Syria isn’t sexy; what’s not to like about democracy going toe to toe with a ruthless dictator?  Besides, it might only be Homs, but even the French have heard of the Alamo.  The problem is deeper than that.

Just a little background.  Less than a year ago, Sarkozy and his buddies couldn’t gas up the F-18s fast enough to go and knock the snot out of Muammar Gaddafi.  They put on a textbook (limited) military campaign that surprised everybody, including me and Muammar.  Now, another flowering of Arab Spring is raising its lovely head north of Damascus, but the day before yesterday, those same eager beavers, forgot where they put the launch keys.  What gives?  I’ll grant you, some of the hurtin’ they put on Gaddafi was payback for being a forty-year-on pain in the ass, but, in general, Western motivations in Libya were honest.  Yeah, yeah, yeah; “Blood for Oil.”  But I’ll let you in on a little secret: that Mad Men slogan is just another clever way to sell bumper stickers.  I’m not naive enough to think Libyan oil wasn’t an issue, but for all those who still believe in Santa Claus and the Great Satan, they both get their oil from Canada and the Saudis.  The difference is Muammar didn’t have any friends left at the end, whereas Basher al-Assad still does — and they’re walking with a swagger these days.

Remember when you where in high school and there was that nasty kid most people avoided?   The one who thought it was funny to hold the washroom door closed or spray Coke™ on the back of your head?  The guy whose face still says, “Oh, yeah!  Him.” in the Yearbook.  Then there were those rowdy kids who had their lockers at the end of the hall, the ones the Glee Club and the cheerleader crowd stayed away from.  They weren’t really hardcore but nobody messed with them ‘cause they had a bad reputation, kinda like Kenickie and Rizzo from Grease.  Well, if the world were just a great big high school (and I’m not saying it isn’t) Syria is that nasty kid.   But instead of being a jerk all by himself, he decided to suck up to the rough bunch down the hall.  He doesn’t really belong to that group, but they don’t mind him hanging around.  In a nutshell, Syria thinks it can get away with all kinds of idiot antics because it has some tough friends.

Unfortunately, Bashar and his crew have forgotten the one essential element of friendship in the world of international relations: what do you bring to the table?  It’s obvious.  They don’t bring a lot.  In the great scheme of things, Syria is pretty much a backwater and has been — ever since the Mongols burned it down in the 13th century.  Its only claim to fame is the mess they’ve made of Lebanon and the always ill-tempered Hezbollah, both of whom are putting some distance between themselves and Damascus.  Right now, China and Russia don’t mind that Syria is a thorn in the foot of the Western world.  It suits them.  However, that’s going to change.  Eventually, Bashar’s going to be more trouble than he’s worth.  When that happens, Syria will have even less to offer a burgeoning Asian Superpower, and I doubt very much that Vladimir Putin ever got any awards for being a nice guy.  Bashar’s cling to power has a limited shelf life.  Regardless of who he thinks his friends are, he’s not going to last anywhere near the Presidential term yesterday’s farce referendum gave him.  When the proverbial ship hits the sand even his best buddy, Ahmadinejad, who has a few problems of his own, is going to make himself scarce.

The problem is, it isn’t Bashar who’s going to pay the price.  (Although a show trail a la Hosni Mubarak would be nice.)  It’ll be the ordinary Syrian, who doesn’t really know who his friends are anymore.

MITT ROMNEY … OR ELSE (Part III)

Rumour has it that nothing concentrates the mind like getting shot at.  I don’t have much firsthand experience, but I’ll take it on faith that dodging a bullet makes you think clearly.  Let’s hope so, because a couple of weeks ago in South Carolina the Republican Party almost shot themselves in the foot.  Yesterday, in Florida, they dodged that bullet and now, therefore, should be able to think straight again.  I’ll do it to you once more without the metaphor.  In the South Carolina primary, a couple of weeks ago, Republicans went (temporarily) insane and voted for Newt Gingrich.  Yesterday, in the Florida primary they came to their senses and voted for Romney — overwhelmingly!  This should settle things.   If it doesn’t, there’s going to be an awful lot of time, energy and expense wasted trying to dodge the next Gingrich bullet — which could very well kill any hope of the GOP relocating Barack Obama’s residence in November.

The Republican Party needs to nominate Mitt Romney.  They need to do it sooner, rather than later, or risk tearing their rightwing umbrella full of ideological holes.  Offering Gingrich any modicum of hope for the nomination will just invigorate the political infighting and open the door to prolonged civil war.  Not only that, but if Newt thinks he’s got some support, there’s no tellin’ what he’s capable of.  He might (perish the thought) just go “Third Party” and FUBAR the election to maximum effect.  No, Gingrich needs to be seriously ballot-boxed out of the equation, since it doesn’t look as if he’s willing to leave voluntarily.

I’m not going to go into the wherefores and the whys and all the political arguments for and against Newt Gingrich.  At this point, it doesn’t matter: it’s too late.  There are exactly nine months until the election.  The Republicans need to concentrate every minute of every waking hour on November.  Wasting energy on a primary fight is not in their best interest.  Everybody needs to understand that the single most overwhelming argument in favour of Mitt Romney is this: Barack Obama is in the White House, and no amount of right wing wishful thinking is going to get him out.  Bluntly, Newt can’t beat Barack; Mitt can.

We need to remember that, before all the hype, Obama was a dolt out of the blue, leading into 2008.  He was all things to all people because nobody had a clue who or what he really was.  Frankly, most folks didn’t care.  He wasn’t George Bush; that’s all that mattered.  It’s actually ironic that, in the end, he was the best dolt for the job, given what the Republicans mounted against him.  But that was a one-off.  Four years later, Obama isn’t surprising anybody anymore.  In fact, he’s disappointing quite a few.  Again, I’m not going to detail the misadventures of Barack Obama, but even a casual observer can see he’s vulnerable.  Ever since the 2010 Congressional elections, he’s been taking just about as much flak from the left as he has from the right, and tons of disillusioned people in the centre are ready to abandon the brand.  Politically speaking, a reasonable presidential alternative could turn into a real alternative — with luck and a lot of hard work piled on.

Regardless of whether you agree with Newt Gingrich’s politics or not, he is not a reasonable alternative.  First of all, he’s carrying enough political baggage to sink the Titanic.  He’ll have to spend most of the campaign defending that, because Obama’s not going to let the country forget it.  Secondly, despite the bounce he got from John King in South Carolina, it’s going to be open season on his personal life.  Under the guise of comic relief, the media will tear him a new navel over what will probably be called his personal life choices.  The writers from Jon Stewart, Stephen Colbert and SNL are burning up laptops, even as we speak.  They will make him look as ridiculous as possible.  Finally, and most importantly, the guy’s stuck in an ideological straitjacket.  Obama is already framing the campaign as “Them” vs “Us.”  Without political flexibility, Gingrich will be trapped into defending “Them” on ideological grounds, losing his core message in the meantime.  After that, all Obama has to do is point a finger and say, “See?  I told you!  He’s one of them.”  The end result is, if Gingrich is the Republican nominee, he will spend most of the presidential campaign on the defensive.  Obama won’t have to convince the country he’s the better candidate.  All he’ll have to do is convince them he’s not Newt Gingrich.

Mitt Romney might be the Man from Bland, but that’s exactly what the Republicans need in 2012 – a reasonable alternative.  If the American people have a realistic presidential option Barack Obama will have to stand and fight.  And the only weapon he has is his record in the White House.  If I were a Republican, I’d take that bet — today — rather than waste a lot of time and money taking potshots at one another and dodging bullets.